Marcel E. Visser

Prof Dr Marcel E. Visser (1960) graduated from Leiden University in 1987, and continued there as a PhD student in the Animal Ecology Group for four years, working on the life-history of insect parasitoids. After his PhD he obtained an EC Science Programme Fellowship to continue his parasitoids research at Imperial College (UK). In 1993 he shifted systems when he became a post-doc at the NIOO-KNAW, working on laying date in Great Tits. In 1996 he was appointed as a Senior Researcher and in 2002 as Head of Department. His main interests are the interaction between ultimate and proximate aspects of timing, particularly in the Oak - Winter Moth - Great Tit/Pied Flycatcher system. In June 2005 he was appointed as Professor on Seasonal Timing of Behaviour at Groningen University but he remains based at the NIOO-KNAW. In January 2007 he obtained a personal VICI grant from NWO. He is currently subject editor for Global Change Biology.

 

Projects

Timing of growth and reproduction: ultimate functions and proximate mechanisms
For many species, there is only a short period in the annual cycle in which conditions are suitable for reproduction or growth. This period is often determined by other species, at a lower trophic level: the timing of herbivore growth is constrained by the phenology of the vegetation, predator reproduction by herbivore abundance, etc. Spring temperatures have increased over the past 35 years, and this has affected the phenology of many species. An important question is whether all levels in multi-trophic interactions are affected at the same rate, i.e. whether synchronization in maintained under large-scale climate change. We are currently concentrating on three model systems. Winter Moth eggs need to hatch at the time of Oak bud burst so that the small caterpillars can feed on the fresh leaves. Both Oak (Quercus robur) bud burst and Winter Moth (Operophtera brumata) egg hatching advance with warmer spring temperatures, but the Winter Moth does so much stronger, leading to severe mistiming. Mistiming also occurs in the Great Tits (Parus major), which do not advance their laying date as much as the phenology of the abundance of prey for their nestlings, which now peaks 9 days earlier. Finally, advancement of Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) timing of breeding is hampered by their arrival date from Central Africa. This date has not advanced while spring on their breeding grounds has. In all three of these model systems we aim to understand why mistiming occurs, whether natural selection will lead to a better synchronisation, and what the population consequences are of the mistiming. We collect field data and analyse long-term data sets (for the Great Tit on a European wide scale), carry out field experiments (for the great Tit to manipulate laying date), carry out controlled environment experiments in the laboratory (for the Great Tit in temperature controlled aviaries, for the Pied Flycatcher to estimate heritability of the onset of migration, for the Winter Moth to estimate heritability of the timing mechanism), study the underlying physiology and use modelling to answer these questions.

An important part of this research is funded by a NWO-VICI grant. 
 

Co-Operation

Songbird Genomics: High throughput genetics and QTL mapping in wild passerines
Linking quantitative genetic variation in life-history traits with polymorphisms in genes that code for this variance is essential for our understanding of the causes and consequences of trait diversity. Genetic variation in life-history traits in wild songbirds has been demonstrated in many, often long-term, studies throughout the world. Linking this variation to genomic information requires the development of the necessary genomics tools specifically aimed at these non-model species. This is essential as it is impossible to replicate the ecological data already available for free living birds in a limited set of model species. We will link state of the art genomic tools that recently became available for model species, to the in depth studies carried out on free living songbirds. Large numbers of SNP’s will be identified for the great tit, one of the main species in ecological research, using high parallel sequencing on the Solexa and 454 sequencing platforms. We will validate the position of the SNP’s and identify conserved syntenic blocks for songbirds in general, using zebra finch and the chicken genomes as a reference. The SNP’s will subsequently be used to produce high quality genetic maps using the Illumina SNP genotyping platform. The combined expertise on bird genomics and bioinformatics of the Animal Breeding and Genetics Centre (WUR) and the long term (>50 years) population studies of Animal Population Biology (NIOO-KNAW) within this project will revolutionize molecular ecological research on free living songbirds throughout the world.

This project is a cooporation with Prof. Dr. Martien A.M. Groenen from the Animal Breeding and Genetics department of the WUR and Dr. Kees van Oers of the NIOO and is funded by the Horizon program.

 

Selected Publications

Note: my ResearcherID is A-9151-2009, see http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-9151-2009

72. van Bers, N.E.M., K. van Oers, H.H.D. Kerstens, B.W. Dibbits, R.P.M.A. Crooijmans, M.E. Visser & M.A.M. Groenen 2010
Genome-wide SNP detection in the great tit Parus major using high throughput sequencing
Molecular Ecology In press

Identifying genes that underlie ecological traits will open exiting possibilities to study gene environment interactions in shaping phenotypes and in measuring natural selection on genes. Evolutionary ecology has been pursuing these objectives for decades, but they come into reach now that next generation sequencing technologies have dramatically lowered the costs to obtain the genomic sequence information that is currently lacking for most ecologically important species. Here we describe how we generated over 2 billion basepairs of novel sequence information for an ecological model species, the great tit Parus major. We used over 16 million short sequence reads for the de novo assembly of a reference sequence consisting of 550,000 contigs, covering 2.5% of the genome of the great tit. This reference sequence was used as the scaffold for mapping of the sequence reads, which allowed for the detection of over 20,000 novel SNPs. Contigs harboring 4,272 of the SNPs could be mapped to a unique location on the recently sequenced zebra finch genome. Of all the great tit contigs, significantly more were mapped to the microchromosomes than to the intermediate and the macrochromosomes of the zebra finch, indicating a higher overall level of sequence conservation on the microchromosomes than on the other types of chromosomes. The large number of great tit contigs that can be aligned to the zebra finch genome shows that this genome provides a valuable framework for large scale genetics, e.g. QTL mapping or whole genome association studies, in passerines.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

71. Visser, M.E. & J.J. Sanz 2009
Solar activity affects avian timing of reproduction
Biology Letter 5, 739–742

Avian timing of reproduction is strongly affected by ambient temperature. Here we show that there is an additional effect of sunspots on laying date, from five long-term population studies of great and blue tits, demonstrating for the first time that solar activity not only has an effect on population numbers but that it also affects the timing of animal behaviour. This effect is statistically independent of ambient temperature. In years with few sunspots, birds initiate laying late while birds are often early in years with many sunspots. The sunspot effect may be due to a crucial difference between the method of temperature measurements by meteorological stations (in the shade) and the temperatures experienced by the birds. A better understanding of the impact of all the thermal components of weather on the phenology of ecosystems is essential when predicting their responses to climate change.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

70. Visser, M.E., L.J.M. Holleman & S.P. Caro 2009
Temperature has a causal effect on avian timing of reproduction
Proc R Soc Lond B 276: 1845-1854

Many bird species reproduce earlier in years with high spring temperatures but little is known about the causal effect of temperature. Temperature may have a direct effect on timing of reproduction but the correlation may also be indirect, for instance via food phenology. As climate change has led to substantial shifts in timing, it is essential to understand this causal relationship to predict future impacts of climate change. We tested the direct effect of temperature on laying dates in great tits (Parus major) using climatised aviaries in a six year experiment. We mimicked the temperature patterns from two specific years in which our wild population laid either early (“warm” treatment) or late (“cold” treatment). Laying dates were affected by temperature directly. As the relevant temperature period started three weeks prior to the mean laying date, with a range of just 4 C between the warm and the cold treatment, and as the birds were fed ad libitum, it is likely that temperature acted as a cue rather than lifting an energetic constraint on the onset of egg production. We furthermore show a high correlation between the laying dates of individuals reproducing both in aviaries and in the wild, validating investigations of reproduction of wild birds in captivity. Our results demonstrate that temperature has a direct effect on timing of breeding, an important step towards assessing the implication of climate change on seasonal timing.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

69. Caro, S.P. & M.E. Visser 2009
Temperature induced elevation of basal metabolic rate does not affect testis growth in great tits
J. Exp. Biol. 212, 1995-1999

Timing of reproduction varies from year to year in many bird species. To adjust their timing to the prevailing conditions of that year, birds use cues from their environment. However, the relative importance of these cues, such as the initial predictive (e.g. photoperiod) and the supplemental factors (e.g. temperature), on the seasonal sexual development are difficult to distinguish. In particular, the fine-tuning effect of temperature on gonadal growth is not well known. One way temperature may affect timing is via its strong effect on energy expenditure since gonadal growth is an energy-demanding process. To study the interaction of photoperiod and temperature on gonadal development, we first exposed 35 individually housed male great tits (Parus major) to mid-long days (after 6 weeks of 8L:16D at 15°C, photoperiod was set to 13L:11D at 15°C). Two weeks later, for half of the males the temperatures were set to 8°C, for the other half to 22°C. Unilateral laparotomies were performed at weeks 5 (i.e one week before the birds were transferred to mid-long days), 8 and 11 to measure testis size. Two measures of basal metabolic rate (BMR) were performed at the end of the experiment (weeks 11 and 12). Testis size increased significantly during the course of the experiment, but independently of the temperature treatment. BMR was significantly higher in birds exposed to the cold treatment. These results show that temperature related elevation of BMR did not impair the long-day-induced testis growth in great tits. As a consequence, temperature may not be a crucial cue and/or constraint factor in the fine-tuning of the gonadal recrudescence in male great tits, and testis growth would not be a high energy-demanding seasonal process.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

68. Husby, A., L.E.B. Kruuk & M.E. Visser 2009
Decline in the frequency and benefits of multiple brooding in great tits as a consequence of a changing environment
Proc R Soc Lond B 276: 2323-2331

For multiple-brooded species, the number of reproductive events per year is a major determinant of an individual’s fitness. Where multiple brooding is facultative, its occurrence is likely to change with environmental conditions, and, as a consequence, the current rates of environmental change could have substantial impacts on breeding patterns. Here we examine temporal population-level trends in the proportion of female great tits (Parus major) producing two clutches per year (‘double brooding’) in four long-term study populations in The Netherlands, and show that the proportion of females that double brood has declined in all populations, with the strongest decline taking place in the last 30 years of the study. For one of the populations, for which we have data on caterpillar abundance, we show that the probability that a female produces a second clutch was related to the timing of her first clutch relative to the peak in caterpillar abundance, and that the probability of double brooding declined over the study period.We further show that the number of recruits from the second clutch decreased significantly over the period 1973–2004 in all populations. Our results indicate that adjustment to changing climatic conditions may involve shifts in life-history traits other than simply the timing of breeding.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

67. Visser, M.E., A.C. Perdeck, J.H. van Balen & C. Both 2009
Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances
Global Change Biology 15, 1859–1865

Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season in the Netherlands between 1932 and 2004. Of the 24 species included in the analysis, we found in 12 a significant decrease of the distance to the wintering site. Species from dry, open areas shortened their distance the most, species from wet, open areas the least, while woodland species fall in between the other two habitats. The decline in migration distance is likely 
due to climate change, as migration distances are negatively correlated with the Dutch temperatures in the winter of recovery. With a shorter migration distance, species should be better able to predict the onset of spring at their breeding sites and this could explain the stronger advancement of arrival date found in several short distance species relative to long-distance migrants. 
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

66. Robinson, R.A., H.Q.P. Crick, J.A. Learmonth, I.M.D. Maclean, C.D. Thomas, F. Bairlein, M.C. Forchhammer, C.M. Francis, J.A. Gill, B.J. Godley, J. Harwood, G.C. Hays, B. Huntley, A.M. Hutson, G.J. Pierce, M.M. Rehfisch, D.W. Sims, M. Begoña Santos, T.H. Sparks, D.A. Stroud & M.E. Visser 2009
Travelling through a warming world: climate change and migratory species
Endangered Species Research 7:87-99

Long-distance migrations are among the wonders of the natural world, but this multitaxon review shows that the characteristics of species that undertake such movements appear to make them particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts of climate change. Migrants are key components of biological systems in high latitude regions, where the speed and magnitude of climate change impacts are greatest. They also rely on highly productive seasonal habitats, including wetlands and ocean upwellings that, with climate change, may become less food-rich and predictable in space and time. While migrants are adapted to adjust their behaviour with annual changes in the weather, the decoupling of climatic variables between geographically separate breeding and nonbreeding grounds is beginning to result in mistimed migration. Furthermore, human land-use and activity patterns will constrain the ability of many species to modify their migratory routes and may increase the stress induced by climate change. Adapting conservation strategies for migrants in the light of climate change will require substantial shifts in site designation policies, flexibility of management strategies and the integration of forward planning for both people and wildlife. While adaptation to changes may be feasible for some terrestrial systems, wildlife in the marine ecosystem may be more dependent on the degree of climate change mitigation that is achievable.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

65. Grøtan, V., B.E. Sæther, S. Engen, J.H. van Balen, A.C. Perdeck & M.E. Visser 2009
Spatial and temporal variation in the relative contribution of density dependence, climate variation and migration to fluctuations in the size of great tit populations
J. Anim. Ecol 78: 447–459

1. The aim of the present study is to model the stochastic variation in the size of five populations of great tit Parus major in the Netherlands, using a combination of individual-based demographic data and time series of population fluctuations. We will examine relative contribution of density dependent effects, and variation in climate and winter food on local dynamics as well as on number of immigrants.
2. Annual changes in population size were strongly affected by temporal variation in number of recruits produced locally as well as by the number of immigrants. The number of individuals recruited from one breeding season to the next was mainly determined by the population size in year t, the beech crop index (BCI) in year t and the temperature during March–April in year t. The number of immigrating females in year t + 1 was also explained by the number of females present in the population in year t, the BCI in autumn year t and the temperature during April–May in year t.
3. By comparing predictions of the population model with the recorded number of females, the simultaneous modeling of local recruitment and immigration explained a large proportion of the annual variation in recorded population growth rates.
4. Environmental stochasticity especially caused by spring temperature and BCI did in general contribute more to annual fluctuations in population size than density-dependent effects. Similar effects of climate on local recruitment and immigration also caused covariation in temporal fluctuations of immigration and local production of recruits.
5. The effects of various variables in explaining fluctuations in population size were not independent, and the combined effect of the variables were generally non-additive. Thus, the effects of variables causing fluctuations in population size should not be considered separately because the total effect will be influenced by covariances among the explanatory variables.
6. Our results show that fluctuations in the environment affect local recruitment as well as annual fluctuations in the number of immigrants. This effect of environment on the interchange of individuals among populations is important for predicting effects of global climate change on the pattern of population fluctuations.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl 

64. van den Steen, E., R. Pinxten, V.L.B. Jaspers, A. Covaci, E. Barba, C. Carere, M. Cichoń, A. Dubiec, T. Eeva, P. Heeb, B. Kempenaers, J.T. Lifjeld, T. Lubjuhn, R. Mänd, B. Massa, J.Å. Nilsson, A.C. Norte, M. Orell, P. Podzemny, J. J. Sanz, J.Carlos, J.J. Soler Senar, A. Sorace, J. Török, M.E. Visser, W. Winkel & M. Eens 2009
Brominated flame retardants and organochlorines in the European environment using great tit eggs as a biomonitoring tool Environment International 35: 310-317

Large-scale studies are essential to assess the emission patterns and spatial distribution of organohalogenated pollutants (OHPs) in the environment. Bird eggs have several advantages compared to other environmental media which have previously been used to map the distribution of OHPs. In this study, large scale geographical variation in the occurrence of OHPs, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), was investigated throughout Europe using eggs of a terrestrial residential passerine species, the great tit (Parus major). Great tit eggs from 22 sampling sites, involving urban, rural and remote areas, in 14 European countries were collected and analysed (5–8 eggs per sampling site). The environmentally most important congeners/compounds of the analysed pollutants were detectable in all sampling locations. For PCBs, PBDEs and OCPs, no clear geographical contamination pattern was found. Sum PCB levels ranged from 143 ng/g lipid weight (lw) to 3660 ng/g lw. As expected, PCB concentrations were significantly higher in the sampled urban compared to the remote locations. However, the urban locations did not show significantly higher concentrations compared to the rural locations. Sum PBDEs ranged from 4.0 ng/g lw to 136 ng/g lw. PBDEs were significantly higher in the urbanized sampling locations compared to the other locations. The significant, positive correlation between PCB and PBDE concentrations suggests similar spatial exposure and/or mechanisms of accumulation. Significantly higher levels of OCPs (sum OCPs ranging from 191 ng/g lw to 7830 ng/g lw) were detected in rural sampling locations. Contamination profiles of PCBs, PBDEs and OCPs differed also among the sampling locations, which may be due to local usage and contamination sources. The higher variance among sampling locations for the PCBs and OCPs, suggests that local contamination sources are more important for the PCBs and OCPs compared to the PBDEs. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which bird eggs were used as a monitoring tool for OHPs on such a large geographical scale.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

63. Both, C., M. van Asch, R.G. Bijlsma, A.B. van den Burg & M.E. Visser 2009
Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations?
J. Anim. Ecol. 78: 73-83

1. Climate change has been shown to affect the phenology of many organisms, but interestingly these shifts are often unequal across trophic levels, causing a mismatch between the phenology of organisms and their food.
2. We consider two alternative hypotheses: consumers are constrained to adjust sufficiently to the lower trophic level, or prey species react more strongly than their predators to reduce predation. We discuss both hypotheses with our analyses of changes in phenology across four trophic levels: tree budburst, peak biomass of herbivorous caterpillars, breeding phenology of four insectivorous bird species and an avian predator.
3. In our long-term study we show that between 1988-2005 budburst has not advanced, while between 1985-2005 both caterpillars and the hatching date of the passerine species have advanced, whereas raptor hatching dates showed no trend.
The caterpillar peak date was closely correlated with budburst date, as were the passerine hatching dates with the peak caterpillar biomass date. In all these cases, however, the slopes were significantly less than unity, showing that the response of the consumers is weaker than that of their food. This was also true for the avian predator, for which hatching dates were not correlated with the peak availability of fledgling passerines. As a result, the match between food demand and availability deteriorated over time for both the passerines and the avian predators.
4. These results could equally well be explained by consumers’ insufficient responses as a consequence of constraints in adapting to climate change, or by them trying to escape predation from a higher trophic level, or both. Selection on phenology could thus be both from matches of phenology with higher and lower levels, and quantying these can shed new light on why some organisms do adjust their phenology to climate change, while others do not.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

62. Sæther, B.E., S. Engen, V. Grøtan, T. Bregnballe, C. Both, P. Tryjanowski, A. Leivits, J. Wright, A.P. Møller, M.E. Visser & W. Winkel 2008
Forms of density regulation and (quasi-) stationary distributions of population sizes in birds
Oikos 117:1197-1208
The theta-logistic model of density regulation is an especially flexible class of density regulation models because different forms of non-linear density regulation can be expressed by only one parameter, θ . Parameterizing the theta-logistic model is, however, challenging. This is mainly due to the need for information concerning population growth at low densities as well as data on fluctuations around the carrying capacity K in order to estimate the strength of density regulation. Here we estimate parameters of the theta-logistic model for populations of 3 species of birds that have grown from very small population sizes followed by a period of fluctuations around K. We then use these parameters to estimate the quasi stationary distribution of population size. There were often large uncertainties in these parameters specifying the form of density regulation that were generally independent of the duration of the study period. In contrast, precision in the estimates of environmental variance increased with the length of the time series. In most of the populations, a large proportion of the probability density of the (quasi-) stationary distribution of population sizes was located at intermediate population sizes relative to K. Thus, we suggest that the (quasi-) stationary distribution of population sizes represents a useful summary statistic that in many cases provides a more robust characterisation of basic population dynamics (e.g. range of variation in population fluctuations or proportion of time spent close to K) than can be obtained from analyses of single model parameters.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

61. Wingfield, J. C., M.E. Visser & T.D. Williams 2008
Integration of ecology and endocrinology in avian reproduction: a new synthesis
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363: 1581-1588

Birds are some of the most familiar organisms of global ecosystems. Changes in the visibility and abundance of birds are therefore excellent indicators of population and physiological responses to habitat changes and are a major focus for public concern about detrimental environmental changes. In order to understand how birds respond to these challenges, it is essential to determine how the environment affects reproduction under natural conditions. The continuum from environmental variables (cues) to reproductive life-history traits depends upon a cascade of neural and physiological processes that determine the extent and rate at which birds will be able to adapt to changes in their environment. For a full understanding of this ability to adapt, ecologists and endocrinologists need to collaborate and build a common framework. The objective of this theme issue is to bring together a series of papers addressing how evolutionary ecologists and endocrinologists can collaborate directly using avian reproduction as a model system. First, we address the need to integrate ecology and endocrinology and what benefits to biological knowledge will be gained. The papers collected in this issue represent a new synthesis of ecology and endocrinology as discussed in three E-BIRD workshops. The three main foci are trade-offs and constraints, maternal effects and individual variation. Authors within each group present ecological and endocrinological aspects of their topics and many go on to outline testable hypotheses. Finally, we discuss where the major problems remain and how this issue points out where these need collaborative efforts of ecologists and endocrinologists. Specific challenges are raised to future researchers to break through intellectual barriers and explore new frontiers. This framework of topics will ultimately apply to all taxa because the principles involved are universal and hopefully will have direct application to programmes integrating organisms and genes throughout biological sciences.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

60. Visser, M.E. 2008
Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change
Proc R Soc Lond B 275: 649-659

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity. The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod. Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions. Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

59. Mols, C.M.M. & M.E. Visser 2007
Great tits (Parus major) reduce caterpillar damage in commercial apple orchards
PLoS ONE 2: e202

Alternative ways to control caterpillar pests and reduce the use of pesticides in apple orchards are in the interest of the environment, farmers and the public. Great tits have already been shown to reduce damage under high caterpillar density when breeding in nest boxes in an experimental apple orchard. We tested whether this reduction also occurs under practical conditions of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) as well as Organic Farming (OF), by setting up an area with nest boxes while leaving a comparable area as a control within 12 commercial orchards. We showed that in IPM, but not in OF, orchards the areas with breeding great tits apples had 50% of the caterpillar damage of the control areas. Offering nest boxes to attract insectivorous passerines in orchards can thus lead to more limited pesticide use, thereby adding to the natural biological diversity in an agricultural landscape, while also being economically profitable to the fruit growers.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

58. Sæther, B-E, S. Engen, V. Grøtan. W. Fiedler, E. Matthysen, M.E. Visser, J. Wright, A.P. Møller, F. Adriaensen, H. van Balen, D. Balmer, M.C. Mainwaring, R.H. McCleery, M. Pampus & W. Winkel 2007
The extended Moran effect and large-scale synchronous fluctuations in the size of great tit and blue tit populations
J. Anim. Ecol. 76: 315-325

1. Synchronous fluctuations of geographically separated populations are in general explained by the Moran effect, i.e. a common influence on the local population dynamics of environmental variables that are correlated in space. Empirical support for such a Moran-effect has been difficult to provide, mainly due to problems separating out effects of local population dynamics, demographic stochasticity and dispersal that also influence the spatial scaling of population processes. Here we generalize the Moran-effect by decomposing the spatial autocorrelation function for fluctuations in the size of Great tit Parus major and Blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus populations into components due to spatial correlations in the environmental noise, local differences in the strength of density regulation and the effects of demographic stochasticity.

2. Differences between localities in the strength of density dependence and non-linearity in the density regulation had a small effect on population synchrony, whereas demographic stochasticty reduced the effects of the spatial correlation in environmental noise on the spatial correlations in population size by 21.7 % and 23.3 % in the Great tit and Blue tit, respectively.

3. Different environmental variables, such as beech mast and climate, induce a common environmental forcing on the dynamics of Central European Great and Blue tit populations. This generates synchronous fluctuations in the size of populations located several hundred kilometers apart.

4. Although these environmental variables were autocorrelated over large areas, their contribution to the spatial synchrony in the population fluctuations differed, dependent on the spatial scaling of their effects on the local population dynamics. We also demonstrate that this effect can lead to the paradoxical result that a common environmental variable can induce spatial desynchronization of the population fluctuations.

5. This demonstrates that a proper understanding of the ecological consequences of environmental changes that occur simultaneously our large areas will require information about the spatial scaling of their effects on local population dynamics.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

57. van Asch, M., P.H. van Tienderen, L.J.M. Holleman & M.E. Visser 2007
Predicting adaptation of phenology in response to climate change, an insect herbivore example
Global Change Biology 13: 1596–1604

Climate change has led to an advance in phenology in many species. Synchrony in phenology between different species within a food chain may be disrupted if an increase in temperature affects the phenology of the different species differently, as is the case in the winter moth egg hatch – oak bud burst system. Operophtera brumata (winter moth) egg hatch date has advanced more than Quercus robur (pedunculate oak) bud burst date over the past two decades. Disrupted synchrony will lead to selection, and a response in phenology to this selection may lead to species genetically adapting to their changing environment. However, a prerequisite for such genetic change is that there is sufficient genetic variation and severe enough fitness consequences. So far, examples of observed genetic change have been few. Using a half-sib design, we demonstrate here that O. brumata egg hatching reaction norm is heritable, and that genetic variation exists. Fitness consequences of even a few days difference between egg hatch and tree bud opening are severe, as we experimentally determined. Estimates of genetic variation and of fitness were then combined with a climate scenario to predict the rate and the amount of change in the eggs’ response to temperature. We predict a rapid response to selection, leading to a restoration of synchrony of egg hatch with Q. robur bud opening. This study shows that in this case there is a clear potential to adapt - rapidly - to environmental change. The current observed asynchrony is therefore not due to a lack of genetic variation and at present it is unclear what is constraining O. brumata to adapt. This kind of model may be particularly useful in gaining insight in the predicted amount and rate of change due to environmental changes, given a certain genetic variation and selection pressure.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

56. van Asch, M. & M.E. Visser 2007
Phenology of forest caterpillars and their host trees: the importance of synchrony
Ann Rev of Entomol 52: 37-55

For many leaf-feeding herbivores, synchrony in phenology with their host plant is crucial as development outside a narrow phenological time window has severe fitness consequences. In this review, we link mechanisms, adaptation, and population dynamics within a single conceptual framework, needed for a full understanding of the causes and consequences of this synchrony. The physiological mechanisms underlying herbivore and plant phenology are affected by environmental cues, such as photoperiod and temperature, although not necessarily in the same way. That these different mechanisms lead to synchrony, even if there is spatial and temporal variation in plant phenology, is a result of the strong natural selection acting on the mechanism underlying herbivore phenology. Synchrony has a major impact on the population densities of leaf-feeding Lepidoptera, and years with a high synchrony may lead to outbreaks. Global climate change leads to a disruption of the synchrony between herbivores and their host plants, which may have major impacts for population viability if natural selection is insufficient to restore synchrony.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

55. Both C., J. J. Sanz, A. A. Artemyev, B. Blaauw, R. J. Cowie, A. J. Dekhuijzen, A. Enemar, A. Järvinen, N. E. I. Nyholm, J. Potti, P.-A. Ravussin, B. Silverin, F. M. Slater, L. V. Sokolov, M.E. Visser, W. Winkel, J. Wright & H. Zang 2006
Pied flycatchers travelling from Africa to breed in Europe: differential effects of winter and migration conditions on breeding date
Ardea 94: 511-525

In most bird species there is only a short time window that is optimal for breeding due to variation in ecological circumstances in a seasonal environment. Long distance migrants have to travel before they start breeding, and ecological conditions at the wintering grounds and during migration may affect their travelling speed and hence their arrival and breeding dates. These ecological effects are to a large extent determined by climate variables such as rainfall and temperature, and we need to identify these effects to predict how well species are able to adapt to climate change. In this paper we analyse effects of vegetation development on the wintering grounds and sites en route on the annual breeding dates of 17 populations of Pied Flycatchers studied between 1982-2000. Breeding date was to a large extent correlated with local spring temperatures, but on top of these local effects there were also striking effects of African vegetation and NAO on variation in breeding date. Populations differed in the effects of vegetation development on the wintering grounds, and on their northern African staging grounds, as well as ecological circumstances in Europe as measured by the winter NAO. In general, populations with an early breeding date (low altitude, western European populations) bred earlier in years with more vegetation in the Northern Sahel zone, as well as in Northern Africa. In contrast, late breeding populations (high altitude and northern and eastern populations) advanced their breeding dates when circumstances in Europe were more advanced (high NAO). Thus, breeding date in most Pied Flycatcher populations not only depends upon local circumstances, but also on conditions encountered during travelling, and these effects differ across populations depending on the timing of travelling and breeding.
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54. Gienapp, P., E. Postma & M.E. Visser 2006
Why breeding time has not yet responded to selection for earlier breeding in a songbird population
Evolution 60: 2381–2388

A crucial assumption behind the breeder’s equation and hence behind understanding evolution is that selection is actually acting on the trait under consideration. A non-heritable environmental factor, which determines fitness and simultaneously affects the trait, could lead to a correlation between trait and fitness. This correlation could then be mistaken as selection on the trait if the environmental factor remained unmeasured. Such an environmentally caused covariance between trait and fitness has been repeatedly proposed to explain a lack of response to selection in avian breeding time. We tested this hypothesis using a long-term data set from a Dutch great tit (Parus major) population. While egg laying dates have changed only marginally over the last decades, the timing of the main food source for the nestlings has advanced substantially, resulting in strong selection for earlier egg laying. Using a so-called animal model we quantified the additive genetic variance in egg laying dates and predicted breeding values. Subsequently we compared selection at the phenotypic and genetic level. We found no evidence for an environmental covariance biasing selection differentials. The very small and consequently undetectable response to selection can be explained by the fact that much weaker survival selection and sex limitation of breeding time reduced the strong phenotypic fecundity selection substantially. This finding generally emphasizes that the quantitative formulation of the expected response to selection is crucial in the study of microevolution.
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53. Klok, C., R. Holtkamp, R. van Apeldoorn, M.E. Visser & L. Hemerik 2006
Analysing population numbers of the house sparrow in the Netherlands with a matrix model and suggestions for conservation measures
Acta Biotheoretica 54: 161–178

The House Sparrow (Passer domesticus), formerly a common bird species, has shown a rapid decline in Western Europe over recent decades. In The Netherlands, its decline is apparent from 1990 onwards. Many causes for this decline have been suggested that all decrease the vital rates, i.e. survival and reproduction, but their actual impact remains unknown. Although the House Sparrow has been dominant in The Netherlands, data on life history characteristics for this bird species are scarce: data on reproduction are non-existent, and here we first present survival estimates based on live encounters and dead recoveries of marked individuals over the period 1976–2003, 14 years before and 14 years during the decline, reported to the Dutch Ringing Centre. We show that there is an indication that both juvenile and adult survival are lower during the period of decline. Secondly, to be able to analyse the relative impact of changes in the vital rates, we formulated a general matrix model based on a range of survival values between zero and one with a step size of 0.01 (both juvenile and adult yearly survival) and a range of realistic reproduction values (one, three or five fledglings per pair per year). With the matrix model, we calculated the finite rate of population change (λ) and applied elasticity analysis. To diagnose the cause of the decline in the Dutch House Sparrow, we parameterised the model with estimates of survival values before and during the decline and present the resulting λ.With the survival estimates from the declining period, λ < 1 only if reproduction is relatively low. We discuss this result within the light of available literature data on survival in the House Sparrow. Finally, we evaluate which of the suggested causes of population decline should be reversed to mitigate the decline and how this can be achieved.
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52. Both, C., S. Bouwhuis, C.M. Lessells & M.E. Visser 2006
Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird
Nature 441: 81-83

Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. We investigate the population consequences of this mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we found that populations have declined by about 90% over the last two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season, and the birds are currently mistimed, while in areas where the early birds still breed at the right time (late food phenology areas) there is at most a weak decline. Since adjustment to the advanced food peak is also insufficient in areas with a late food peak, we expect these populations to decline if their food phenology advances further. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and this is the first evidence that it leads to population declines.
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51. Gienapp, P. & M.E. Visser 2006
Possible fitness consequences of experimentally advanced laying dates in great tits: differences between populations in different habitats
Funct. Ecol. 20: 180-185

1. In birds early breeding individuals generally reproduce more successfully than late breeding individuals. The lack of response to this selection could be explained by resource constraints during the egg production period.

2. Parus species can learn from the mismatch experienced between breeding time and nestling food availability and subsequently adjust their breeding time accordingly. In two great tit populations, breeding time was manipulated by creating an artificial food peak. This allowed us to study fitness consequences of manipulated breeding time in the following year without the confounding effects of food supplementation.

3. In one population manipulated females advanced their laying dates in response to the artificial food peak. However, sample sizes were too low to quantify fitness consequences. In the other population, no response to the treatment was found. This difference could be caused by differences in resource availability in early spring between the two habitats. Low resource availability in early spring could also explain the lack of response to selection observed in one population.
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50. Visser M.E., L.J.M. Holleman & P. Gienapp 2006
Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird Oecologia 147: 164–172

Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pressure. We measured caterpillar biomass over a 20-year period and show that annual peak date is correlated with temperatures from 8 March to 17 May. Laying dates also correlate with temperatures, but over an earlier period (16 March - 20 April). However, as we would predict from a reliable cue used by birds to time their reproduction, also the food peak correlates with these temperatures. Moreover, the slopes of the phenology of the birds and caterpillar biomass, when regressed against the temperatures in this earlier period, do not differ. The major difference is that due to climate change, the relationship between the timing of the food peak and the temperatures over the 16 March – 20 April period is changing, while this is not so for great tit laying dates. As a consequence, the synchrony between offspring needs and the caterpillar biomass has been disrupted in the recent warm decades. This may have severe consequences as we show that both the number of fledglings as well as their fledging weight is affected by this synchrony. We use the descriptive models for both the caterpillar biomass peak as for the great tit laying dates to predict shifts in caterpillar and bird phenology 2005-2100, using an IPCC climate scenario. The birds will start breeding earlier and this advancement is predicted to be at the same rate as the advancement of the food peak, and hence they will not reduce the amount of the current mistiming of about 10 days.
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49. Mols, C.M.M., A.J. van Noordwijk & M.E. Visser 2005
Assessing the reduction of caterpillar numbers by Great Tits Parus major breeding in apple orchards
Ardea 93: 259-269

Great Tits Parus major can reduce fruit damage in apple orchards by predating on caterpillars. A model by Mols (2003) predicted that damage reduction is mainly influenced by the hatching date of the Great Tit nestlings and the number of breeding pairs in the orchard. We tested these predictions by investigating predation pressure on caterpillars by Great Tits in various orchards. First we calculated the total number of feeding visits by Great Tits using two different methods: event counters and the daily weight gain of nestlings. For the latter method we needed to make assumptions on prey size selectivity of Great Tits to prevent overestimation of the number of visits. With the event counters we showed that the number of feeding visits increased with date and with the number of nestlings but there was no effect of hatching date on the total number of feeds over the whole nesting period. Next, we used these data on feeding visits to calculate the maximum proportion of caterpillars that Great Tits removed in organic apple orchards. The average number of three breeding pairs of Great Tits per ha removed on average 23% of the caterpillars. This percentage can increase up to 49% if all foraging takes place within the orchard.
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48. Visser, M.E. & C. Both 2005
Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick.
Proc R Soc B 272: 2561 - 2569

Climate change has led to shifts in phenology in many species distributed widely across taxonomic groups. It is however unclear how we should interpret these shifts without some sort of a yardstick: a measure which will reflect how much species should be shifting to match the change in its environment caused by climate change. Here, we assume that the shift in the phenology of a species’ food abundance is, by a first approximation, an appropriate yardstick. We review the few examples that are available, ranging from birds to marine plankton. In almost all of these examples, the phenology of the focal species shifts either too little (five out of eleven) or too much (three out of eleven) compared to the yardstick. Thus, many species are becoming mistimed due to climate change. We urge researchers with long-term data sets on phenology to link their data with those that may serve as a yardstick because documentation of the incidence of climate change induced mistiming is crucial in assessing the impact of global climate change on the natural world.
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47. Nussey, D.H., E. Postma, P. Gienapp & M.E. Visser 2005
Selection on heritable phenotypic plasticity in a wild bird population
Science 310, 304-306

Theoretical and laboratory research suggests that phenotypic plasticity can evolve under selection. However, evidence for its evolutionary potential from the wild is lacking. We present evidence from a Dutch population of great tits (Parus major) for variation in individual plasticity in the timing of reproduction, and we show that this variation is heritable. Selection favoring highly plastic individuals has intensified over a 32-year period. This temporal trend is concurrent with climate change causing a mismatch between the breeding times of the birds and their caterpillar prey. Continued selection on plasticity can act to alleviate this mismatch.
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46. Both C. & M.E. Visser 2005
The effect of climate change on the correlation between avian life history traits
Global Change Biology 11: 1606-1613

The ultimate reason why birds should advance their phenology in response to climate change is to match the shifting phenology of underlying levels of the food chain. In a seasonal environment, the timing of food abundance is one of the crucial factors to which birds should adapt their timing of reproduction. They can do this by shifting egg-laying date, but also by changing other life-history characters that affect the period between laying of the eggs and hatching of the chicks. In a long-term study of the migratory Pied Flycatcher, we show that the peak of abundance of nestling food (caterpillars) has advanced during the last two decades, and that the birds advanced their laying date. Laying date strongly correlates with the timing of the caterpillar peak, but in years with an early food peak the birds laid their eggs late relative to this food peak. In such years, the birds advance their hatching date by incubating earlier in the clutch and reducing the interval between laying the last egg to hatching of the first egg, thereby partly compensating for their relative late laying date. Paradoxically, they also laid larger clutches in the years with an early food peak, and thereby took more time to lay (i.e. one egg per day). Clutch size therefore declined more strongly with laying date in years with an early food peak. This stronger response is adaptive because the fitness of an egg declined more strongly with date in early than in late years. Clearly, avian life history traits are correlated and Pied Flycatchers apparently optimize over the whole complex of the traits including laying date, clutch size and the onset of incubation. Climate change will lead to changing selection pressures on this complex of traits and presumably the way they are correlated.
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45. Both, C., R.G. Bijlsma & M.E. Visser 2005
Climatic effects on timing of spring migration and breeding in a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca.
J. Avian Biol. 36:368-373

Climate change has advanced the breeding dates of many bird species, but for few species we know whether this advancement is sufficient to track the advancement of the underlying levels of the food chain. For the long-distance migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca the advancement in breeding time has been insufficient to maintain the synchrony with their main food sources. The timing of arrival in the breeding areas from their African wintering grounds is likely to constrain the advancement of breeding date.We hypothesise that this is because in Africathey cannot predict the advancement of spring in their breeding habitat. However, long-distance migrants may advance their arrival time by migrating faster when circumstances en route are favourable. In this study we show that both arrival and breeding date depend on temperatures at their main North African staging grounds, as well as on temperature at the breeding grounds. Male arrival and average laying date were not correlated, but the positive effect of temperature in North Africaon breeding dates suggests that breeding date is indeed constrained by arrival of females. Long-distance migrants thus are able to adjust arrival and hence breeding by faster spring migration, but the degree of adjustment is probably limited as timing schedules in spring are tight. Furthermore, as climate change is affecting temperatures differently along the migratory flyway and the breeding areas, it is unlikely that arrival dates are advanced at the same rate as the timing of breeding should advance, given the advancement of the underlying levels of the food chain.
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44. Sæther B.E., R. Lande, S. Engen, H. Weimerskirch, M. Lillegard, R. Altwegg, P.H. Becker, T. Bregnballe, J.E. Brommer, R.H. McCleery, J. Merila, E. Nyholm, W. Rendell, R.R. Robertson, P. Tryjanowski & M.E. Visser 2005
Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics
Nature 436: 99-102

Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density regulation in population time series is complicated by time lags induced by the life history of species that make it difficult to separate the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to the population dynamics. Here we use population time series for 23 bird species to estimate parameters of a stochastic density dependent age-structured model. We show that both the strength of total density dependence in the life history and the magnitude of environmental stochasticity, including transient fluctuations in age structure, increase with generation time. These results indicate that the relationships between demographic and life history traits in birds translate into distinct population dynamical patterns that are apparent only on a scale of generations.
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43. Gienapp, P., L. Hemerik & M.E. Visser 2005
A new approach to describe changes in phenology due to climate change: an example from egg laying dates in birds
Global Change Biology 11: 600-606

Climate change will likely affect the phenology of trophic levels differently and thereby disrupt the phenological synchrony between predators and prey. To predict this disruption of the synchrony under different climate change scenarios, good descriptive models for the phenology of the different species are necessary. Many phenological models are based on regressing the observed phenological event against temperatures measured over a fixed period. This is problematic, especially when used for future predictions because the paradoxical situation could arise that the phenological event occurs before the period over which temperature is measured. Such models are unable to predict population variation in phenology. Here, we propose a ‘proportional hazards model’ to describe phenology and illustrate it with an example from breeding time in birds. This type of model circumvents the above-mentioned problems and is generally applicable for describing phenology, which is essential when assessing the ecological impact of climate change.
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42. Sæther B.E., S. Engen, A.P. Møller, M.E. Visser, E. Matthysen, W. Fiedler, R. Freckleton, M.M. Lambrechts, P.H. Becker, J. Brommer, J. Dickinson, F.R. Gehlbach, J. Merilä, W. Rendell, D. Thomson & J. Török. 2005
Extinction processes in bird populations
Ecology 86: 693-700

The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the extinct populations. We found for a set of 38 bird populations that environmental stochasticity had the most immediate effect on the risk of extinction, whereas the long-term persistence of the population was most strongly affected by the specific population growth rate. This illustrates the importance of including information on temporal trends in population size when assessing the viability of a population. We used these relationships to examine whether time to extinction can be predicted from interspecific life history variation. Two alternative hypotheses were examined. (1) Time to extinction should decrease with increasing clutch size or decreasing survival rate because of the larger stochastic components in the population dynamics of such species. (2) Time to extinction should increase with decreasing clutch size or longer life expectancy if extinction rates are most strongly influenced by variation in the specific population growth rate. In the present data set, time to extinction increased with decreasing clutch size because of larger stochastic influences on the population dynamics of species with large clutch sizes located toward the fast end of the ‘‘slow–fast continuum’’ of life history variation. This demonstrates that interspecific variation in extinction risk can be predicted from knowledge of general life history characteristics. Such information can therefore be useful for assessing minimum sizes of viable populations of birds.
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41. Sæther B.E., S. Engen, A.P. Møller, H. Weimerskirch, M.E. Visser, W. Fiedler, E. Matthysen, M. M. Lambrechts, R. Freckleton, A. Badyaev, P.H. Becker, J.E. Brommer, D. Bukacinski, M. Bukacinska, H. Christensen, J. Dickinson, C. du Feu, F.R. Gehlbach, D. Heg, H. Hötker, J. Merilä, J. Tottrup Nielsen, W. Rendell, D. Thomson, J. Török & P. Van Hecke 2004
Life history variation predicts stochastic effects on avian population dynamics
Am. Nat. 164: 793–802.

Comparative analyses of avian population fluctuations have shown large interspecific differences in population variability that have been difficult to relate to variation in general ecological characteristics. Here we show that interspecific variation in demographic stochasticity, caused by random variation among individuals in their fitness contributions, can be predicted from a knowledge of the species’ position along a “slow-fast” gradient of life-history variation, ranging from high reproductive species with short life expectancy at one end to species that often produce a single offspring but survive well at the other end of the continuum. The demographic stochasticity decreased with adult survival rate, age at maturity, and generation time or the position of the species toward the slow end of the slow-fast life-history gradient. This relationship between life-history characteristics and demographic stochasticity was related to interspecific differences in the variation among females in recruitment as well as to differences in the individual variation in survival. Because reproductive decisions in birds are often subject to strong natural selection, our results provide strong evidence for adaptive modifications of reproductive investment through life-history evolution of the influence of stochastic variation
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40. Visser M.E., Both, C. & M.M. Lambrechts 2004
Global climate change leads to mistimed avian reproduction
Advances in Ecological Research 35: 89-110

Climate change is apparent as an advancement of spring phenology. However, there is no a priori reason to expect that all components of food chains will shift their phenology at the same rate. This differential shift will lead to mistimed reproduction in many species, including seasonally breeding birds. We argue that climate change induced mistiming in avian reproduction occurs because there is a substantial period between the moment of decision making on when to reproduce and the moment at which selection operates on this decision. Climate change is therefore likely to differentially alter the environment of decision-making and the environment of selection. We discuss the potential consequences of such mistiming, and identify a number of ways in which either individual birds or bird populations potentially can adapt to reproductive mistiming.
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39. Both C., A.V. Artemyev, B. Blaauw, R.J. Cowie, A.J. Dekhuizen, T. Eeva, A. Enemar, L. Gustafsson, E.V. Ivankina, A. Järvinen, N.B. Metcalfe, N.E.I. Nyholm, J. Potti, P.-A. Ravussin, J.J. Sanz, B. Silverin, F.M. Slater, L.V. Sokolov, J. Török, W. Winkel, J. Wright, H. Zang & M.E. Visser 2004
Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier
Proc. R. Soc. Lond. 271: 1657-1662

Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied populations of Ficedula flycatchers across Europe. Trends in spring temperature varied markedly between study sites, and across populations the advancement of laying date was stronger in areas where the spring temperatures increased more, giving support to the theory that climate change causally affects breeding date advancement.
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38. Mols, C.M.M., K. van Oers, L.M.A. Witjes, C.M. Lessells, P.J. Drent & M.E. Visser 2004
Central assumptions of predator-prey models fail in a semi-natural experimental system.
Biol. Letters Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B (Suppl.) 271: S85–S87

The relationship between the encounter rate of predators with prey and the density of this prey is fundamental to models of predator–prey interactions. The relationship determines, among other variables, the rate at which prey patches are depleted, and hence the impact of predator populations on their prey, and the optimal spatial distribution of foraging effort. Two central assumptions that are made in many models are that encounter rate is directly proportional to prey density and that it is independent of the proportion of prey already removed, other than via the decreased density. We show here, using captive great tits searching for winter moth caterpillars in their natural hiding positions, that neither of these assumptions hold. Encounter rate increased less than directly in proportion to prey density, and it depended not only on the current density of prey, but also on the proportion of prey already removed by previous foragers. Both of these effects are likely to have major consequences for the outcome of predator–prey interactions.
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37. Saether, B.-E, , S. Engen, A.P. Møller, E. Matthysen, F. Adriansen, W. Fiedler, A. Leivits, M. Lambrechts, M.E. Visser, C. Both, R.H. McCleery, H. Källander & D. Thomson 2003
Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole nesting passerines.
Proc. R. Soc. Lond. 270: 2397-2404

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by NAO increasedwith latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higherlatitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to thevariability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased withlatitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change willdepend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species,the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.
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36. Both, C. & M.E. Visser 2003
Density dependence, territoriality and divisibility of resources: from optimality models to population processes.
American Naturalist 161: 326-336

Species differ enormously in their territorial system. Some species only defend small areas surrounded by undefended space, while others defend large-sized contiguous territories. We show with an optimization approach that this variation can depend on the density of two types of resources: divisible or non-divisible resources. We assume that the benefits are monotonously related to the defended amount of divisible resources (such as food). In contrast, no benefits are obtained without a non-divisible resource (such as a nest) in the territory, while more than one divisible resource does not further increase the benefits. The optimal territory size depends on the relative abundance of these resources. With a low density of non-divisible resources, the optimal territory size is small and only includes the non-divisible resource. If the density of non-divisible resource is relatively large, the optimal territory size is large and territories are contiguous. Competition for these different resources yields contrasting patterns on how populations are regulated. If competition is mainly for non-divisible resources we expect density dependent exclusion through territoriality and no density dependent reproduction. Where competition is mainly for the divisible resources we expect density dependent reproduction, because the optimal territory size will be compressed at higher densities resulting in lower reproductive success. These predicted patterns are indeed observed in some well-studied passerine species for which both the territorial system and the occurrence of density dependence is known.
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35. Visser M.E., F. Adriaensen, J.H. van Balen, J. Blondel, A.A. Dhondt, S. van Dongen, C. du Feu, E.V. Ivankina, A.B. Kerimov, J. de Laet, E. Matthysen, R. McCleery, M. Orell & D.L. Thomson 2003
Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations.
Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 270: 367-372.

Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years, and many organisms have responded to this increase by advancing the timing of their growth and reproduction. However, not all populations show an advancement of phenology.Understanding why some populations advance and others not will give us insight in the possible constraints and selection pressures on the advancement of phenology. By combining two decades of data on 24 populations of tits ( sp.) from six European countries, we show that the phenological response to large-scale changes in spring temperature varies across a species’ range, even between populations situated close to each other. We show that this variation cannot be fully explained by variation in the temperature change during the pre- and post-laying periods, as recently suggested. Instead we find evidence for a link between rising temperatures and the frequency of second broods, which results in complex shifts in the laying dates of first clutches. Our results emphasise the need to consider links between different life-history parameters in order to predict the ecological consequences of large-scale climate changes.
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34. Mols, C.M.M. & M.E. Visser 2002
Great tits can reduce caterpillar damage in apple orchards.
Journal of Applied Ecology 39: 888-899

1. The potential contribution of vertebrate predators to biological control in orchards has been largely overlooked to date. A few studies have shown that birds reduce numbers of pests, but have not considered effects on actual damage or timing. Consequently, the practical value of birds as biocontrol agents remains unclear.

2. This study, therefore, considers whether great tits L. can reduce caterpillar numbers and fruit damage by caterpillars and increase biological yield in an experimental orchard with high caterpillar numbers. The outcome depends on the coincidence of the period during which great tits forage and the period over which caterpillars cause damage. In the first experiment nets were put over trees at different times of the growing season, thus creating different periods during which great tits had access to the trees. In the second experiment caterpillars were removed from trees at different times in the growing season. In both experiments, the resultant caterpillar damage to apples was assessed in autumn.

3. The longer the period of foraging by great tit, from the start of egg incubation until fledging of young, the less the damage. Damaged caused by caterpillars was greater the later they were removed, from the young apple stage onwards.

4. The effect of great tits on damage from caterpillar was small (% damage was reduced from 13.8% to 11.2%) but significant (<0.05) and biological yield increased significantly (yield increased from 4.7 to 7.8 kg apples per tree, P<0.05) and the only cost is that of erecting nest boxes (2 ha-1). Depending on the tit’s numeric response, the relative impact may be greater at lower densities more typical for commercial orchards and, if so may allow economic thresholds for other controls to be reduced. On the other hand, the contribution to biological control may be equally useful in organic orchards or under future scenarios of enforced reductions of pesticide use
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33. Sæther, B.-E, S. Engen, R.. Lande,C. Both. & M.E. Visser 2002
Density dependence and stochastic variation in a newly established population of a small songbird.
Oikos 99:331-337

Models describing fluctuations in population size should include both density dependence and stochastic effects. We examine the relative contribution of variation in parameters of the expected dynamics as well as demographic and environmental stochasticity to fluctuations in a population of a small passerine bird, the Pied Flycatcher, that was newly established in a Dutch study area. Using the theta-logistic model of density regulation, we demonstrate that the estimated quasi-stationary distribution including demographic stochasticity is close to the stationary distribution ignoring demographic stochasticity, indicating a long expected time to extinction. We also show that the variance in the estimated quasi-stationary distribution is especially sensitive to variation in the density regulation function. Reliable population projections must therefore account for uncertainties in parameter estimates which we do by using the Population Prediction Interval (PPI). After 2 years the width of the 90 % PPI was already larger than the corresponding estimated range of variation in the quasi-stationary distribution. More precise prediction of future population size than can be derived from the quasi-stationary distribution could only be made for a time span less than about five years.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

32. Visser, M.E., B. Silverin, M.M. Lambrechts & J.M. Tinbergen. 2002
No evidence for tree phenology as a cue for the timing of reproduction in tits Parus spp.
Avian Science 2: 77-86

There is ample evidence that avian timing of reproduction is under strong natural selection. However, which cues birds use to time their reproduction is largely unknown. This knowledge is essential if we wish to understand the limits of adaptation in the timing of reproduction to large-scale changes in climate and land use. We test whether birds use the phenology of trees that host the main prey species for their offspring in their timing. We carried out three experiments on captive birds in which: (1) pairs of great tits Parus major were given branches of oak Quercus sp with either early or late bud burst; (2) pairs of blue tits P. caeruleus were given an oak branch or not, and (3) male great tits were given a branch of birch Betula sp or not. No effect of tree phenology on laying date in the predicted direction was found in experiments 1 or 2. In experiment 3 there was no effect on gonadal growth or testosterone, but there was a faster increase in LH in the exposed group. We conclude that great and blue tit do not use oak phenology as a cue. This conclusion is confirmed by a natural experiment where in one year there was a decoupling of spring temperatures and date of bud burst.

Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

31. Grieco, F., A.J. van Noordwijk & M.E. Visser. 2002
Evidence for the effect of learning on timing of reproduction in Blue Tits.
Science 296: 136-138

We experimentally show that in blue tits (Parus caeruleus) egg-laying date is causally linked to experience in the previous year. Females that received additional food in the nestling period in one year, laid later compared to the control birds in the next year, whatever the degree of synchronization with the natural food abundance in the previous year. As a result, they raised their brood much later than the peak period of nestling food availability in the next year. The response to experience is adaptive for blue tits, which live in heterogeneous habitats where the peak period of food varies, but when settled will breed at the same location for life.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

30. Visser, M.E & C. M. Lessells. 2001
The costs of egg production and incubation in the Great Tit.
Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 268: 1271-1277

The costs of egg production and incubation may have a crucial effect on avian reproductive decisions, such as clutch size and the timing of reproduction. We carried out a brood size enlargement experiment on the Great Tit (Parus major), in which the birds had to lay and incubate extra eggs (full costs), only incubate extra eggs (free eggs) or did not pay any extra cost (free chicks) in obtaining a larger brood. We used female fitness (half the recruits produced plus female survival) as a fitness measure because it is the female who pays the costs of egg production and incubation, and because clutch size is under female control. Female fitness decreased with increasing costs (fitness of free chicks females higher than of free eggs females higher than of full costs females). These fitness differences were due to differences in female survival rather than in the number of recruits produced. This is the first time that the costs of egg production and incubation have been estimated using such a complete fitness measure, including, as our measure does, the local survival to the following year of both the female and her offspring. Our results emphasise that reproductive decisions cannot be understood without taking egg production and incubation costs into account.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

29. Both, C. & M.E. Visser 2001
Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long distance migrant bird
Nature 411: 296-298

Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years and a wide variety of organisms have responded to this increase by advancing their growth and reproduction. We show for the first time that adaptation to climate change in a long-distance migrant is constrained through the timing of its migratory journey. In long-distance migrants, climate change may advance the phenology in their breeding area, but the timing of at least some species’ spring migration relies on endogenous rhythms not affected by climate change. Hence their spring migration will not advance although they need to arrive earlier on their breeding grounds in order to breed at the appropriate time. We show that the migratory Pied Flycatcher has advanced its laying date over the last 20 years. However, this temporal shift has been insufficient as indicated by increased selection for earlier breeding over the same period. The shift is hampered by its spring arrival date, which has not advanced. At least some of the numerous long-distance migrants will suffer from climate change, because either their migration strategy is unaffected by climate change, or the climate in breeding and wintering areas are changing at different speeds, preventing adequate adaptation.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

28. Visser, M.E. & L.J.M Holleman. 2001
Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of Oak and Winter Moth phenology.
Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 268: 289-294

Spring temperatures have increased over the past 25 years to which a wide variety of organisms have responded. The outstanding question is whether these responses match the temperature-induced shift of the selection pressures acting on these organisms. Organisms have evolved response mechanisms that are only adaptive given the existing relationship between the cues organisms use and the selection pressures acting on them. Global warming may disrupt ecosystem interactions because it alters these relationships and micro-evolution may be slow in tracking these changes. Especially for the tight multi-trophic interactions involved in timing of reproduction and growth such shifts have serious consequences for ecosystem functioning. We determine the response of Winter Moth () egg hatching and Oak () bud burst to temperature, a system with strong selection on synchronisation. We show that there has been poor synchrony in recent warm springs, which is due to an increase in spring temperatures without a decrease in the incidence of freezing spells in winter. This is a clear warning that such changes in temperature pattern may affect ecosystem interactions more strongly than changes in mean temperature.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

27. Both, C. & M.E. Visser 2000
Density, territory size and reproductive success; an experimental study on great tits.
Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 1021-1030

1. Descriptive studies have shown that reproduction and survival of an average individual in bird populations declines as density increases. Studies in which breeding density has been manipulated do not always show that density causally affects reproduction. Furthermore they do not show how individual birds are affected as density changes.

2. In this three-year study we manipulated density by removing about one-third of the territorial pairs from half the study area. The removal resulted in an increase in territory size of the remaining birds in the experimental subarea. Reproduction and survival did not differ between the experimental low density and the control subarea. This experiment thus did not show that breeding density causally affects reproduction and survival.

3. Territory size was investigated as a measure for density at the individual level, at which competition operates. In the experimental subarea territories were enlarged, so that effects of territory size and parental quality on reproduction and survival could be investigated.

4. Territory size had positive effects on the probability that a territorial pair nested, on the growth of their chicks, on the number of chicks that recruited into the breeding population and on the survival of the territorial adults. No effect of territory size was observed on clutch size and the probability that pairs started a second brood.

5. These effects did not differ between pairs with an unmanipulated and an enlarged territory of equal size, suggesting that territory size causally affected reproduction and survival. The reason why the density reduction did not result in higher reproduction is probably due to the large variation in territory size between individuals in the density treatments.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

26. Both, C., J.M. Tinbergen & M.E. Visser 2000
Adaptive density dependence of avian clutch size.
Ecology 81: 3391-3403.

In birds, the annual mean clutch size is often negatively correlated with population density. This relationship is at least in part due to adjustment by individuals. We investigated whether this response is adaptive in two ways. First we used an optimality model to predict how optimal clutch size varies with density. We parameterised the model using data on fitness consequences of experimental variation in brood size and natural variation in population density in a great tit population. Optimal clutch size decreased with density, but the predicted relationship was stronger than the observed relationship. Second, we investigated the relationship between the annual selection differential for clutch size and density. We found no relationship, indicating that there is no selection for a steeper than observed relationship between clutch size and density. This implies that the observed response is adaptive, but that the prediction of the optimality model lacks some important constraints or selection pressures. We further used the optimality model to examine the sensitivity of the optimal clutch size to density at different stages in the reproductive cycle. This analysis suggested that the nestling stage was most important. This is the first study that makes quantitative predictions of optimal clutch size in relation to population density.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

25. Lambrechts, M.M., M.E. Visser & N. Verboven 2000
Consequences of dispersal for the quantitative study of adaptation in small-scale plots: a case study of an avian island population.
Ecography 23: 525-530

Lifetime recruitment of breeding offspring estimated in small-scale study plots (i.e. local recruitment) is considered to be the best available ecological measure of contributions to following generations, and sufficient for the quantitative study of adaptation in natural populations. Recent investigations suggest that local recruitment of breeding offspring does not always reflect the total recruitment in the whole population, especially in small-scale plots where the majority of locally-born offspring leave these plots to breed elsewhere. We examined in an avian island population whether study plot size has an important impact on different population and fitness measures. We defined around a central nestbox seven plots, varying in radius from 100 to 700 meters. We show that in the smallest plots, the local replacement rate of adults by breeding offspring is low, the number of locally-born offspring settling beyond the limits of a plot is high, and relationships between local and total recruitment are weak. This is especially true for daughters as more daughters than sons settle beyond the limits of local plots for breeding. Our interpretation is that the lifetime recruitment of breeding offspring does not necessarily reflect the lifetime recruitment of breeding offspring in the whole population, especially when plots do not cover the natal dispersal distance. Consequences of dispersal for the quantitative study of adaptation are discussed.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

24. Perdeck, A.C., M.E. Visser & J.H. van Balen 2000
Great Tit survival and the beech-crop cycle
Ardea 88:99-106

The single most important environmental variable correlating with annual survival of both juvenile and adult Great Tits () is the beech crop index (BCI). This index is a measure for the amount of seeds of beeches present in the winter, and correlates with crop size of several other tree species. Two, not mutually exclusive, hypotheses exist to explain the correlation between BCI and annual survival. The first is that the amount of seeds directly affects survival (winter-food limitation hypothesis). To test this hypothesis we re-analysed a supplemental food experiment of van Balen (1980), extended with 3 more years of previously unpublished data. We found that supplemental food increased survival of both juveniles and adults, mainly in low BCI years, confirming the winter-food limitation hypothesis. The second hypothesis states that winters with a high BCI are by springs with high densities of caterpillars (the breeding-season food limitation hypothesis). Using data of three long term studies of Dutch Great Tit populations we show that this hypothesis does not hold because (1) high BCI winters are not preceded by springs with high caterpillar densities, (2) annual mean juvenile fledging mass increased with increasing caterpillar densities, but no effect on parental mass was found, and (3) the annual survival of juveniles was not affected by the annual mean fledging mass, nor was annual adult survival affected by their mean mass during chick rearing. Finally we show that, despite the fact that the level of BCI probably can be predicted at the time of the breeding season and that both juvenile and adult survival is affected by BCI, reproductive decisions (clutch size, laying date and percentage second broods) are not affected by the BCI levels in the following winter.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

23. Both, C., M.E. Visser & N. Verboven 1999
Long-term fitness effects of fledging date in the Great Tit
Oikos 85: 445-450

Reproductive decisions, such as timing of reproduction and the number of offspring to produce, affect the conditions for the offspring at the time of independence. These conditions can refer to the state of an individual, such as mass, or of the environment, such as time in the season, and will affect the reproductive value of the offspring. Knowledge of these fitness consequences is important when assessing the adaptive value of reproductive decisions. However it is often unclear how long-term the effect of these conditions is on an individual’s reproductive success. Previous work has shown that the probability that Great Tit fledglings recruit into the breeding population is strongly affected by their fledging date and mass. Using a long-term field study of a Great Tit population, we studied whether fledging conditions (fledging date, fledging mass and tarsus length) also affected reproductive success after an individual has recruited into the breeding population. For female recruits, this was not the case. For males however, there was an effect of fledging date on lifetime reproductive success (LRS), calculated for individuals that have recruited. Males that fledged late produced fewer recruiting offspring in their first year of breeding partly because they had a twice as high probability that their breeding attempt failed to produce fledglings. Due to this decrease in LRS of recruited sons with increase in their fledging date, the fitness cost of breeding late is underestimated when counting the number of recruits produced from a breeding attempt.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

22. Visser M.E., T.H. Jones & G. Driessen 1999
Interference among insect parasitoids: a multi-patch experiment
J. Anim. Ecol. 68: 108-120

1. Interference among insect parasitoids leads to a reduction in the overall search rate (the population equivalent of searching efficiency) with increasing parasitoid population density. When this reduction is due to behavioural responses of individuals to increased intraspecific competition, interference can serve as a stepping stone from individual behaviour to population phenomena.

2. Interference can take different forms. (1) A direct within-patch reduction of searching efficiency with parasitoid density (direct mutual interference), (2) a decrease in overall search rate with increasing parasitoid density if parasitoids have a non-uniform distribution over patches where this distribution remains unaltered with increasing density (pseudo-interference), (3a) a decrease in the time spent on patches by each individual, i.e. more or longer travelling at higher parasitoid densities, and (3b) a decrease in overall search rate due to a change in the distribution of parasitoid effort over patches with increasing parasitoid density. These last two forms arise from behavioural responses to increased parasitoid density and are forms of indirect mutual interference.

3. We present an expression for the overall search rate in a patchy environment where individual parasitoids travel between patches. We use this to show how the different forms of interference affect the overall search rate, contrasting environments with aggregated and uniform host distributions.

4. Using the data of Jones (1986) we explore the different forms of interference in a multi-patch experiment. In these experiments, different numbers of parasitoids were introduced in an arena where the distribution of hosts over patches was either aggregated or uniform. We show that both pseudo-interference and indirect mutual interference play a role, and that they have an opposite effect for a uniform host distribution but amplify one another for aggregated host distributions.

5. The indirect mutual interference arises from a shift towards a more uniform distribution of parasitoid effort over patches with increasing parasitoid densities. This shift is caused by a behavioural response to parasitoid density and is likely due to changes in the parasitoids' patch arrival and departure decisions. These decisions underlie the distribution of time spent on patches, thereby linking individual behaviour to a phenomenon at the population level.

6. Finally, we put forward a more general framework for indirect mutual interference to also include behavioural responses in sex allocation, clutch size and host acceptance to parasitoid density as forms of interference.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

21. Visser M.E. & N. Verboven 1999
Long-term fitness effects of fledging date in the Great Tit
Oikos 85: 445-450

Reproductive decisions, such as timing of reproduction and the number of offspring to produce, affect the conditions for the offspring at the time of independence. These conditions can refer to the state of an individual, such as mass, or of the environment, such as time in the season, and will affect the reproductive value of the offspring. Knowledge of these fitness consequences is important when assessing the adaptive value of reproductive decisions. However it is often unclear how long-term the effect of these conditions is on an individual’s reproductive success. Previous work has shown that the probability that Great Tit fledglings recruit into the breeding population is strongly affected by their fledging date and mass. Using a long-term field study of a Great Tit population, we studied whether fledging conditions (fledging date, fledging mass and tarsus length) also affected reproductive success after an individual has recruited into the breeding population. For female recruits, this was not the case. For males however, there was an effect of fledging date on lifetime reproductive success (LRS), calculated for individuals that have recruited. Males that fledged late produced fewer recruiting offspring in their first year of breeding partly because they had a twice as high probability that their breeding attempt failed to produce fledglings. Due to this decrease in LRS of recruited sons with increase in their fledging date, the fitness cost of breeding late is underestimated when counting the number of recruits produced from a breeding attempt.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

20. Visser, M.E., A.J. van Noordwijk, J. M. Tinbergen & C. M. Lessells 1998
Warmer springs lead to mis-timed reproduction in Great Tits (Parus major).
Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 265: 1867-1870

In seasonal environments, the main selection pressure on the timing of reproduction (the ultimate factor) is synchrony between offspring requirements and food availability. However, reproduction is initiated much earlier than the time of maximum food requirement of the offspring. Individuals should therefore start reproduction in response to cues (the proximate factors), available in the environment of reproductive decision making, which predict the later environment of selection. With increasing spring temperatures over the last decades, vegetation phenology has advanced, with a concomitant advancement in the reproduction of some species at higher trophic levels. However, a mismatch between food abundance and offspring needs may occur if changes in the environment of decision making do not match those in the environment of selection. Date of egg laying in a great tit () population has not advanced over a 23-year period but selection for early laying has intensified. We believe that this is the first documented case in which an adaptive response is hampered because a changing abiotic factor affects the environment in which a reproductive decision is made differently from the environment in which selection occurs.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

19. Verboven, N. & M.E. Visser 1998
Seasonal variation in local recruitment of great tits: the importance of being early
Oikos 81: 511-524

To understand seasonal variation in reproductive decisions it is important to quantify the fitness costs and benefits of these decisions in relation to date within breeding season. In this paper we investigate the effect of fledging date on local recruitment of great tits (Parus major). The probability that fledglings were recaptured as breeding birds was analysed in long-term data sets of two great tit populations in the Netherlands, one on the mainland (Hoge Veluwe) and one on an island (Vlieland). The results showed that young that fledged early in the breeding season were more likely to recruit into the breeding population than young that fledged late. The negative relationship between local recruitment and fledging date was also present after controlling for fledging mass, year, sex and brood type (first, replacement or second brood). Moreover, the relationship did not seem to be due to late fledged young being more likely to disperse. The decline of local recruitment rate with fledging date was further tested with two experiments. In the first experiment clutches were removed, forcing parents to lay a replacement clutch and thereby delaying the fledging date of their young. Fledglings from experimental pairs had significantly lower recruitment rates than fledglings from unmanipulated controls, showing that local recruitment was causally related to fledging date. In the second experiment fledging date was not changed, but the parents and the territory from which the young fledged were altered by swapping clutches between parents with early and late laying dates. No significant differences were found in recruitment rates of fledglings between the treatments and unmanipulated controls. There was no evidence for an indirect relationship between recruitment and fledging date through different quality fledglings produced by early and late parents. One of the reasons for the observed seasonal variation in reproductive decisions is that early and late fledglings do not contribute equally to the parents' fitness.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

18. Visser M.E. & J.A. Rosenheim 1998
The influence of competition between foragers on clutch size decisions in insect parasitoids
Biological Control 11:169-174

The effect of competition between ovipositing females on their clutch size decisions is studied in parasitoid insects. The effect of this competition depends on whether the competition between parasitoid larvae within a host is contest (solitary parasitoids) or scramble competition (gregarious parasitoids). For gregarious parasitoids, a decreasing clutch size with increasing competition between females is predicted while for solitary parasitoids an increase is predicted. These predictions were tested using the gregarious parasitoid Aphaereta minuta (Visser, 1996) and the solitary parasitoid Comperiella bifasciata (Rosenheim & Hongkham, 1996). Parasitoids were either kept alone or in groups before the experiments, in which they were introduced singly into a patch containing unparasitized hosts. In the experiment with A. minuta, females kept together before the experiment laid smaller clutches than females kept alone. In C. bifasciata, the clutch size laid by females kept together was larger than that of females kept alone. Thus, both predictions were supported.
Reprint or PDF can be requested at library@nioo.knaw.nl

17. Driessen G. & M.E. Visser 1997
Components of parasitoid interference
Oikos 79:179-182

16. Visser M.E. 1996
The influence of competition between foragers on clutch size decisions in an insect parasitoid with scramble larval competition
Behav. Ecol. 7:109-114

15. Visser M.E. 1995
The effect of competition on oviposition decisions of Leptopilina heterotoma (Hymenoptera: Eucoilidae)
Anim. Behav. 49:1677-1687

14. Visser M.E. 1994
The importance of being large: the relationship between size and fitness in females of the parasitoid Aphaereta minuta (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)
J. Anim. Ecol. 63:963-987

13. Visser M.E. 1993
Adaptive self- and conspecific superparasitism in the solitary parasitoid Leptopilina heterotoma.
Behav. Ecol. 4:22-28

12. Driessen G. & M.E. Visser 1993
The influence of adaptive foraging decisions on spatial heterogeneity and parasitoid population efficiency
Oikos 67:209-217

11. Visser M.E., B. Luyckx, H.W. Nell & G.J.F. Boskamp 1992
Adaptive superparasitism in solitary parasitoids: marking of parasitized hosts in relation to the pay-off from superparasitism
Ecol. Entom. 17:76-82

10. Visser M.E., J.J.M. van Alphen & H.W. Nell 1992
Adaptive superparasitism and patch time allocation in solitary parasitoids: the influence of pre-patch experience
Behav. Ecol. & Sociobiol. 31:163-171

9. Visser M.E., J.J.M. van Alphen & L. Hemerik 1992
Adaptive superparasitism and patch time allocation in solitary parasitoids: an ESS model
J. Anim. Ecol. 61:93-101

8. van Alphen J.J.M., M.E. Visser & H.W. Nell 1992
Adaptive superparasitism and patch time allocation in solitary parasitoids: searching in groups versus sequential patch visits
Funct. Ecol. 6:528-535

7. Visser M.E. & M.J. Sjerps 1991
Optimal diet in depletable patches, a comparison of two papers
Oikos 62:80-82

6. Visser M.E. & G. Driessen 1991
Indirect mutual interference in parasitoids
Neth. J. Zool. 41:214-227

5. Visser M.E. 1991
Prey selection by predators depleting a patch; an ESS model
Neth. J.Zool. 41:63-79

4. Haccou P., S.J. de Vlas, J.J.M. van Alphen & M.E. Visser 1991
Information processing by foragers: effects of intra-patch experience on the leaving tendency of Leptopilina heterotoma
J. Anim. Ecol. 60:93-106

3. Visser M.E., J.J.M. van Alphen & H.W. Nell 1990
Adaptive superparasitism and patch time allocation in solitary parasitoids; the influence of the number of parasitoids depleting a patch
Behaviour 114:21-36

2. Bakker K., Ph. Peulet & M.E. Visser 1990
The ability to distinguish between hosts containing different numbers of parasitoid eggs by the solitary parasitoid Leptopilina heterotoma (Thompson) (Hym.,Cynip.)
Neth. J. Zool. 40:514-520

1. van Alphen J.J.M. & M.E. Visser 1990
Superparasitism as an adaptive strategy for insect parasitoids
Annu. Rev. Entomol. 35:59-79.

Links

Department Chronobiology of the University Groningen
http://www.rug.nl/biologie/onderzoek/onderzoekGroepen/chronobiologie/index

I am professor at the department Chronobiology of the University Groningen

The International journal: Global Change Biology (Blackwell Science)
http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/GCB/

I am subject editor of Global Change Biology (IF 5.9)

TV interview at the Copenhagen UNFCCC climate meeting 2009

http://www.climate-change.tv/component/content/article/47-inside-climate-change-solutions-interviews/291-marcel-visser-december-2009

Klokhuis TV-program
http://player.omroep.nl/?aflID=9213208

On 31 March 2009 Klokhuis, a Dutch TV program, featured our climate change research on the great tit.

Tentoonstelling: De evolutie draait door
http://www.uu.nl/nl/universiteitsmuseum/tentoonstellingen/deevolutiedraaitdoor/

The exhibition 'De evolutie draait door' at the University Museum Utrecht features our research on climate change and great tit reproduction. You can experience how hard a great tit has to work to rear its offspring, especially when it is mistimed!

Master Class Ecology of Life Histories - WUR - 4 January - 26 February 2010

A master course "Ecology of life histories: the interactions between ecology and life history from an evolutionary perspective" at the WUR, offered by the Animal Ecology Department of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW (Heteren)

Opgewarmd Nederland
http://www.opgewarmdnederland.nl/

Book (2004) on climate change in the Netherlands, with a chapter by M.E. Visser & F. Rienks on Ecologische relaties lopen stuk op warmere lentes

De nieuwe mees, aflevering van het TV programma Jota
http://mmbase.teleacnot.nl/teleac/jota/aflevering.jsp?aflnr=38302

'In mei leggen alle vogels een ei,' luidt het spreekwoord. Maar in de toekomst kan dat te laat zijn. Door klimaatsverandering ontwaakt de natuur in Nederland steeds vroeger in het jaar. Als jonge koolmeesjes uit hun ei komen, is hun belangrijkste voedselbron, de rups van de wintervlinder, tegenwoordig alweer verpopt en verdwenen. Welk effect heeft dit op het oerhollandse vogeltje?

 
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